British astronomer estimated the number of civilizations inoplanetnyh

Astronomer from Edinburgh Observatory Duncan Forgan (Duncan H. Forgan) simulated
Several different scenarios of a life based on
Chemical composition of stars in our galaxy. Using the data
already known ekzoplanetah he had received several different assessments --
According to them the Milky Way may contain from three to thirty-eight thousand
highly developed civilization, no potential for a
contact with Earth.

Forgan used for the simulation of real data
the distribution of stars by mass and luminosity of the situation in our
Galaxy, after which a specially written program has created a number of
Virtual stars with a certain number of planets. Number of planets
also determined not arbitrarily, and taking into account the actual details are already
ekzoplanetah detected. Next, each of the virtual planets
tested for suitability for life and the emergence of sound
civilization. The last phase, according to astronomer, was the most
arbitrary: researcher reviewed as a result of three different scenarios
the emergence and spread of life.

In the first scenario could extend the life of a
favorable for the planets with a certain probability. Vorgan
restricted in their life patterns shift boundaries of one star
system and has received for this scenario assessment in the highly 38000
Civilizations (the number is actually not so great, given that
the total number of planets in the Galaxy is close to five hundred million).


In the second case, the spread of life was forbidden to do, but
test the suitability of the planets for life tightened, and the result immediately
changed to two orders of magnitude. The scenario "improbable life" we can
found about three civilizations.

The third version of the author himself acknowledges the most interesting - a model
was made on the assumption that too fast developing
Civilization more prone to self-destruct (eg
result of thermonuclear war). In this case, the result becomes
naturally lower than the first scenario, but still
looks very optimistic: 31000 highly developed civilization.

Despite considerable variation in size estimates, believes Forgan
their work (already accepted for publication in the Cambridge International
Journal of Astrobiology and accessible on the site arxiv.org) more to it than just curious incidents.
The resulting interplanetary vehicles results can literally with
Every year, specify a radius of a potentially habitable zone around
stars and ekzoplanety opened dozens per year. Consequently,
at least two critical parameter model Forgana can take from it is
real astronomical observations.